Status: OWNED (200 shares, ₹92.2K invested, ~6% of portfolio)
Quality Score: 17/25 (Grade B: Moderate Conviction)
Last Updated: 2026-03-12 | Source: Screener.in + Groww MCP
Entry: ₹460.8 avg | CMP: ₹470 | P&L: +1.91%
One-line thesis: NCR real estate developer pivoting toward data centers with nearly zero debt (D/E 0.09x), 74% profit CAGR over 5 years, and forward P/E ~20x on TTM EPS ₹15 — a Munger-style compounder where the data center optionality is not yet priced in.
Action: HOLD
| Level | Price | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Buy / Add | ₹400 – ₹440 | Forward P/E would be ~27–29x at ₹420 — reasonable for a 74% profit CAGR business; D/E 0.09x means minimal financial risk |
| Hold | ₹440 – ₹550 | Current range (CMP ₹470, entry ₹460.8 avg, +1.91%) — consistent quarterly growth; data center thesis intact |
| Sell / Exit | At trigger | ROE below 8%; D/E exceeds 0.5x; data center pivot stalls; revenue declines QoQ for 2 quarters |
Why now (Mar 2026): Consistent and growing quarterly profits (Q3 FY26 ₹138 Cr, Q2 ₹126 Cr, Q1 ₹119 Cr). Forward P/E ~20x is reasonable. The data center build-out is structural and Anant Raj's NCR land bank is the right asset at the right time. No action needed — hold and review at Q4 FY26.
NCR-focused real estate developer. IT parks, data centers, SEZs, office complexes, hospitality, and residential projects across Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh. Delivered 9.96 MSF. Pivoting toward data center development — a high-demand, long-cycle business that is structurally different from residential real estate.
The thesis: India's data center boom (hyperscaler investment, AI infrastructure) + NCR commercial real estate recovery + low-debt balance sheet = durable compounder.
| Dimension | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| MOAT | 3 | Land bank in NCR is a real asset moat. Data center pivot adds recurring revenue moat. But real estate is cyclical and execution-dependent. |
| Management | 3 | Promoter 57.41%, declining from 60%. D/E 0.09x — conservative capital management. |
| Financials | 3 | Revenue 5Y CAGR 49%, Profit CAGR 74%. But ROE only 10.9% — typical of asset-heavy real estate. OPM 26% solid. |
| Growth Runway | 4 | Data center demand is structural. NCR is India's largest commercial real estate market. Order book growing. |
| Valuation | 4 | P/E 32x seems high but forward P/E ~20x on TTM EPS ₹15. P/B 3.84x is fair for quality real estate with data center optionality. |
| Total | 17/25 | Grade B |
| Year | Revenue (₹Cr) | Net Profit (₹Cr) | EPS | OPM% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 462 | 53 | ₹1.86 | — |
| FY23 | 957 | 149 | ₹4.73 | — |
| FY24 | 1,483 | 271 | ₹7.63 | — |
| FY25 | 2,060 | 426 | ₹12.40 | 26% |
| TTM | 2,405 | 527 | ₹15.16 | 26% |
5Y Revenue CAGR: 49% | 5Y Profit CAGR: 74%
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Profit | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 | ₹642 Cr | ₹144 Cr | ₹4.01 |
| Q1 FY26 | ₹541 Cr | ₹119 Cr | ₹3.46 |
| Q2 FY26 | ₹592 Cr | ₹126 Cr | ₹3.67 |
| Q3 FY26 | ₹631 Cr | ₹138 Cr | ₹4.02 |
Consistent and growing each quarter.