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Portfolio Decision Log

Running log of portfolio decisions, thesis updates, and key takeaways — newest first.

2026-04-09

Markets bounced hard from tariff-driven dip. Portfolio recovered from -₹94.9K (Apr 7) to -₹22K (Apr 8).
US tariff uncertainty ongoing. Relief rally, not confirmed reversal.

Stock	Decision	Price	Rationale
EPACKPEB	Hold 751 shares	₹175	Above add zone (₹155). Q4 confirmation needed before adding more. If Q4 ₹400 Cr+, add 100 shares.
GRSE	Exit	₹2,479	Base case fair value ₹2,459 — stock above fair value. -47% bear case. Wait for ₹1,800–2,000.
RAYMOND	Exit	₹369	Thin R/R (1.3:1). Too small for concentrated portfolio. 1.3:1 not sufficient for 5-8 stock focus.
KERNEX	Hold 90 shares	₹1,138	-53% bear case too severe for concentration. Small bet only. Do not add above ₹750.
SWIGGY	Exit now	₹278	Grade C. -51% on position. Pre-profit. No recovery thesis.
STLNETWORK	Exit now	₹19.3	Grade C. -38%. Declining business metrics. Exit.
ARTEMISMED	Exit	₹231	Grade C 15/25. Single hospital, no moat. India healthcare theme right, vehicle wrong.
ETERNAL	Exit on rally	₹244	Grade B 15/25 but -28% position, weak conviction. Exit above ₹260.
ICICIAMC	Hold 6 shares	₹3,124	Grade A 21/25 but P/E 52.5x — top of hold range. Add only at ₹2,400. Do NOT build position here.
NEWGEN	Core hold	₹463	Grade B+ 18/25 + undervalued (21x P/E on 33% CAGR). Best quality+value combo available.

Target portfolio — in priority order:

1. NEWGEN — 18/25, 21x P/E, rare Indian software product. Target 15-20% weight.

2. EPACKPEB — 17/25, structural PEB thesis. Already 11%. Hold, add at ₹155.

3. GROWW — 19/25, platform play. 7% weight. Hold.

4. BANCOINDIA — 19/25, India #1 radiator, 32% ROCE. Hold.

5. KAYNES — 17/25, EMS+defence. Hold, overvalued — don't add.

6. KERNEX — small speculative bet. Max 5%.

7. ICICIAMC — Grade A. Waiting for ₹2,400 to build to 15-20%.

Capital freed from exits (GRSE + RAYMOND + SWIGGY + STL + ARTEMIS + ETERNAL): ~₹2.0–2.5L

Redeploy into: NEWGEN (when below ₹430) + wait for ICICIAMC ₹2,400.

Quality first, then undervalued within quality. Not undervalued > quality — value traps look cheap and stay cheap (STL, SWIGGY).
Base case must be above current price. GRSE base case ₹2,459 < CMP ₹2,479 = no margin of safety = exit.
Never buy the exact bottom. Missing the last 10-day dip is hindsight bias. 751 EPACK shares at ₹195 avg was the right action with available information.
Concentrated means 5-8 positions, each sized to matter. 15 positions is a mutual fund.
ICICIAMC is the best business but wrong price. Grade A, add at ₹2,400 — not ₹3,124.
Downside first. KERNEX -53% bear case makes it unsuitable for concentration despite 64% upside.

[1-2 lines on market conditions]

Stock	Decision	Price	Rationale

Stock	Trigger	Action

Updated each research session. Prices at time of decision.